Pair #10120

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1476528

YES ask: 0.0280
NO ask: 0.9740
Last: 0.0280

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Rules

If Viktor Hovland wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5740

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:08:32Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so it necessarily satisfies 'win any major'. The reverse isn't true since he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -81.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0140 + ~$0.0045 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -85.39% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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