Pair #10118

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5740

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-VHOV

The Open Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 28243

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:08:32Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major could occur at a different major (not Open Championship), and finishing top 20 doesn't mean winning; no necessary implication either way.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -51.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3800 + ~$0.0182 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -56.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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