Pair #10117

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5740

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-VHOV

The Open Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8388

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:08:13Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any of the four majors doesn't require winning or placing top 10 specifically at The Open Championship (could win a different major), and finishing top 10 at The Open doesn't mean winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -37.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0145 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -42.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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