Pair #10114

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 135705

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-CGOT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22026

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:08:13Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after round 3 doesn't guarantee a top 10 finish (could collapse), and a top 10 finish doesn't require leading after round 3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9400 + ~$0.0040 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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