Pair #1011

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 20432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 39963

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:15:07Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major. A top 20 finish there has no logical connection to winning a major, and winning a major has no logical connection to the Valspar result.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -51.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5300
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -55.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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