Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-CGOT
Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?
Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 135705
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-THOC26-CGOT
Will Chris Gotterup win the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1410131
YES ask: 0.0250
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0250
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:47Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: Winning The Open Championship has no logical connection to leading Round 3 at the separate Genesis Scottish Open.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-46.72%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0150
+ ~$0.0024 est. fees
Days to maturity:
10
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-50.95%
BELOW HURDLE