Pair #10103

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 47626

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0160

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 135705

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:47Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: These are leads in different tournaments; neither necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -87.56% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0940 + ~$0.0080 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -91.79% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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