Pair #1010

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 39963

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1816

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:15:07Z

Reasoning: If Spieth finishes top 20 at the Valspar Championship, he must have made the cut to play the weekend rounds. You cannot finish top 20 without having made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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