Pair #101

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3973

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Denver before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN

Will Denver be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3687

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:10Z

Reasoning: Whether Denver makes the playoffs has no logical bearing on whether Tyreek Hill signs with Denver, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -54.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -59.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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