Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-CGOT
Will Chris Gotterup lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?
Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 135705
YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-THOC26-CGOT
The Open Championship: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 14421
YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:47Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: Open Championship finish is independent of leading Round 3 at the separate Genesis Scottish Open.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-99.88%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1900
+ ~$0.0119 est. fees
Days to maturity:
10
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-104.11%
BELOW HURDLE