Pair #10096

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28458

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-CGOT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 33585

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:47Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major does not necessitate any specific finish at the separate Genesis Scottish Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -76.89% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9600 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -81.33% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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