Pair #10094

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28458

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-CGOT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22026

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:47Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major (Masters/PGA/US Open/Open Championship) has no logical bearing on a top-10 finish at the separate Genesis Scottish Open, a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -76.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9300 + ~$0.0047 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -80.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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