Pair #10091

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28458

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-CGOT

The Open Championship: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7759

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:30Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major could be at a different major than The Open Championship, and a top5 finish at The Open doesn't guarantee winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -21.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0093 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -26.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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