Pair #10090

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-CGOT

Will Chris Gotterup win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1410131

YES ask: 0.0250
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0250

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Rules

If Chris Gotterup wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28458

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:30Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it necessarily means winning a major in 2026. However, winning a major doesn't necessitate winning this specific major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -91.36% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0160 + ~$0.0043 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -95.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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