Pair #1009

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2647

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 39963

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:15:07Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major tournament. Finishing top 20 at Valspar has no logical bearing on finishing top 10 in all 4 majors, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -94.49% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5600
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -98.70% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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