Pair #10087

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CGOT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28458

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-CGOT

The Open Championship: Will Chris Gotterup finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Chris Gotterup
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 14421

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Chris Gotterup finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:30Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major could occur at any of the four majors, not necessarily The Open Championship, so it doesn't imply a top10 finish there; and a top10 finish at The Open doesn't imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -31.79% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800 + ~$0.0126 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -36.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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