Pair #10086

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-TKIM

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 146964

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-TKIM

Will Tom Kim win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2311083

YES ask: 0.0180
NO ask: 0.9830
Last: 0.0180

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:30Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Different tournaments entirely; no logical connection between leading Scottish Open R3 and winning The Open Championship.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 94.60% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9780 + ~$0.0039 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: +90.37% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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