Pair #10085

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-TKIM

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 146964

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-TKIM

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tom Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22534

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.4800
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:30Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after round 3 doesn't guarantee a top 20 finish (unlikely but not logically necessary), and top 20 finish doesn't require having led after round 3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9100 + ~$0.0060 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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