Pair #10083

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-TKIM

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 146964

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-TKIM

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tom Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10760

YES ask: 0.7900
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:30Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require leading after round 3, and leading after round 3 does not guarantee a top 10 finish (could collapse).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7500 + ~$0.0143 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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