Pair #10075

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-TKIM

Will Tom Kim win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2311083

YES ask: 0.0180
NO ask: 0.9830
Last: 0.0180

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Rules

If Tom Kim wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TKIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 40785

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it necessarily means winning a major; the reverse is not true since the major win could be a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -48.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0030 + ~$0.0025 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -53.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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