Pair #10074

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TKIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 40785

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-TKIM

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 146964

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require leading after Round 3 of the Scottish Open, and leading there does not require winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -37.71% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300 + ~$0.0135 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -42.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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