Pair #10073

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TKIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 40785

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If Tom Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-TKIM

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tom Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22534

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.4800
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: These events pertain to different tournaments; neither result is required by the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -76.41% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9400 + ~$0.0040 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -80.85% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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