Pair #10072

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TKIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 40785

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-TKIM

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tom Kim finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22313

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.4600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom Kim finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:07:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical connection between winning a major and a top-5 finish at a separate, unrelated tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -58.45% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4800 + ~$0.0182 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -62.89% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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