Pair #1007

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 39963

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7621720

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:14:48Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar has no logical connection to winning the Masters. These are independent events across different tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4710
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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