Pair #10068

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-ABHA

Will Akshay Bhatia win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 536363

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Akshay Bhatia wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ABHA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 15034

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Akshay Bhatia wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the Open Championship is winning one of the four majors, so it necessitates winning a major. The reverse doesn't hold since another major could be won instead.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -85.13% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0140 + ~$0.0018 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -89.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue