Pair #10067

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ABHA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 15034

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-ABHA

Will Akshay Bhatia lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11201

YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9930
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning the tournament, and winning a major doesn't require leading Round 1 of this specific major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0110 + ~$0.0008 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -6.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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