Pair #10066

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ABHA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 15034

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5705

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major doesn't require a top-20 finish at this specific major, and a top-20 finish doesn't guarantee winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -34.05% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000 + ~$0.0112 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -38.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue