Pair #10065

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ABHA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 15034

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If Akshay Bhatia wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-ABHA

The Open Championship: Will Akshay Bhatia finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Akshay Bhatia
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3206

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Akshay Bhatia finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major (possibly a different one) doesn't require a top-10 finish at the Open Championship, and a top-10 finish doesn't guarantee a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -19.71% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0063 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -24.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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