Pair #10064

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8297

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-JTHO

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Justin Thomas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16685

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Top 20 at the Scottish Open (non-major) doesn't necessitate winning a major, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -46.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3200 + ~$0.0162 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -51.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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