Pair #10062

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8297

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-JTHO

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3304

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Top 10 finish at a non-major event doesn't necessitate winning a major, nor does winning a major require a top 10 at this specific event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -18.22% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0070 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -22.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue