Pair #10059

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1233900

YES ask: 0.0130
NO ask: 0.9880
Last: 0.0130

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Rules

If Justin Thomas wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8297

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it necessarily means winning a major. The reverse doesn't hold since he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -60.39% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0080 + ~$0.0022 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -64.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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