Pair #10058

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8297

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JTHO

Will Justin Thomas lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4205

YES ask: 0.0140
NO ask: 0.9870
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major doesn't require leading Round 1 of the Open Championship, and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning the tournament or any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -1.22% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0040 + ~$0.0017 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -5.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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