Pair #10057

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 742502

YES ask: 0.0130
NO ask: 0.9880
Last: 0.0130

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Rules

If Joaquin Niemann wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JNIE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1911

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joaquin Niemann wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it necessarily satisfies the 'win a major' condition; the reverse isn't true since he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -70.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0080 + ~$0.0022 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -75.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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