Pair #10056

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JNIE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1911

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 29704

YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9910
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major doesn't require leading Round 1 of The Open specifically, and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -0.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0010 + ~$0.0015 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -4.97% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue