Pair #10055

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-MLEE

Will Min Woo Lee lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 153617

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-MLEE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5224

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Top-20 finish doesn't require leading after round 3, and leading after round 3 doesn't guarantee a top-20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6900 + ~$0.0158 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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