Pair #10054

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-MLEE

Will Min Woo Lee lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 153617

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-MLEE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12390

YES ask: 0.6900
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Top-5 finish doesn't require leading after round 3, and leading after round 3 doesn't guarantee a top-5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4000 + ~$0.0294 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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