Pair #10050

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5773

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-MLEE

Will Min Woo Lee lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 153617

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading round 3 of a different, non-major tournament has no necessary connection to winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -50.10% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3600 + ~$0.0170 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -54.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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