Pair #10047

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5773

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-MLEE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3602

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major is unrelated to finishing top 10 at a different, non-major tournament; neither necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -76.89% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9600 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -81.33% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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