Pair #10045

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-MLEE

Will Min Woo Lee win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 864642

YES ask: 0.0170
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0170

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MWLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5773

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Min Woo Lee wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the Open Championship is one of the four majors, guaranteeing a major win, though a major win could come from a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -44.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0040 + ~$0.0025 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -48.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue