Pair #10044

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2217462

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9910
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Jordan Spieth wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21830

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan Spieth wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning the Open Championship, one of the four majors, guarantees winning a major, but winning a major could be via a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -69.22% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0110 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -73.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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