Pair #10043

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21830

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 21982

YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0110

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require leading after Round 1 at a specific major, and leading Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -0.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0010 + ~$0.0015 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -4.97% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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