Pair #10041

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-STHE

Will Sahith Theegala lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 524

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-STHE

Will Sahith Theegala win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1297553

YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: These refer to different tournaments (Scottish Open vs Open Championship) with no logical connection.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -11.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0030 + ~$0.0002 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -15.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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