Pair #1004

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2478

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JSPA

Valspar Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4898

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:14:48Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 has no logical connection to finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -13.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -17.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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