Pair #10034

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-STHE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7523

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-STHE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5826

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:06:06Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require any specific finish at the Scottish Open, and a top-20 finish there doesn't guarantee winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -2.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -6.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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