Pair #10029

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21585

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-BKOE

Will Brooks Koepka lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 14375

YES ask: 0.0120
NO ask: 0.9890
Last: 0.0120

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:05:46Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major does not require leading Round 1 of The Open Championship specifically; could win a different major or win Open without R1 lead.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -0.76% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0020 + ~$0.0015 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -5.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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