Pair #10028

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21585

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BKOE

The Open Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5376

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Brooks Koepka finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:05:46Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any of the four majors does not require winning or placing top-10 specifically at The Open Championship; could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -18.22% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0070 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -22.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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