Pair #10025

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3649

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-TFLE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18069

YES ask: 0.6500
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:05:46Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top-10 finish (could collapse), and a top-10 finish doesn't require having led after Round 3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6500 + ~$0.0159 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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