Pair #10021

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 77438

YES ask: 0.0320
NO ask: 0.9770
Last: 0.0320

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3649

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:05:26Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: These refer to different tournaments and rounds; no logical necessity connects them.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 26.08% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9870 + ~$0.0023 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: +21.85% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue