Pair #10015

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 23780

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-TFLE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18069

YES ask: 0.6500
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:05:26Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical connection between winning a major and finishing top 10 at a non-major event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -65.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6100 + ~$0.0186 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -69.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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