Pair #10013

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFLE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 23780

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-TFLE

The Open Championship: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4879

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:05:26Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a different major doesn't require a top-5 finish at The Open, and a top-5 finish there doesn't require winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -33.32% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900 + ~$0.0151 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -37.76% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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